Chitukuko choyendetsedwa ndi kafukufuku. Kuvala kwa injini

Kafukufuku "Kodi ndizovuta kupeza malingaliro?" ("Kodi ndizovuta kupeza?"), Lomwe linatulutsidwa mu September 2017, ndiyeno, muzowonjezereka, mu March chaka chino. Olemba, akatswiri anayi odziwika bwino a zachuma, amasonyeza mmenemo kuti kufufuza kosalekeza kosalekeza kumabweretsa phindu lochepa la zachuma.

John Van Reenen wa Massachusetts Institute of Technology ndi Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones ndi Michael Webb a ku yunivesite ya Stanford analemba kuti:

"Zambiri zambiri zochokera m'mafakitale, zinthu ndi makampani osiyanasiyana zikuwonetsa kuti ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pa kafukufuku zikuchulukirachulukira pomwe kafukufukuyo akuchepa kwambiri."

Amapereka chitsanzo Lamulo la Moorepozindikira kuti "chiwerengero cha ofufuza omwe tsopano akufunika kuti akwaniritse kuwirikiza kawiri kodziwika kwa kachulukidwe kachulukidwe zaka ziwiri zilizonse ndi kuwirikiza kakhumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu zomwe zimafunikira koyambirira kwa 70s." Zomwezo zimazindikiridwa ndi olemba m'mapepala asayansi okhudzana ndi ulimi ndi mankhwala. Kafukufuku wochulukirachulukira wa khansa ndi matenda ena sapangitsa kuti miyoyo yambiri ipulumutsidwe, koma mosiyana - ubale pakati pa kuchuluka kwa ndalama ndi zotsatira zochulukirapo zikucheperachepera. Mwachitsanzo, kuyambira m’chaka cha 1950, chiwerengero cha mankhwala ovomerezedwa ndi bungwe la US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) pa madola mabiliyoni onse ogwiritsidwa ntchito pofufuza chatsika kwambiri.

Malingaliro otere si achilendo m’maiko a Kumadzulo. Kale mu 2009 Benjamin Jones m'ntchito yake pakukula kwazovuta zopeza zatsopano, adatsutsa kuti omwe angakhale oyambitsa m'munda womwe wapatsidwa tsopano akufunika maphunziro ochulukirapo kuposa kale kuti akhale odziwa bwino kuti angofikira malire omwe adatha kuwoloka. Chiwerengero cha magulu asayansi chikukula nthawi zonse, ndipo nthawi yomweyo, chiwerengero cha ma patent pa wasayansi aliyense chikuchepa.

Akatswiri azachuma makamaka amachita chidwi ndi zomwe zimatchedwa sayansi yogwiritsidwa ntchito, ndiko kuti, ntchito zofufuza zomwe zimathandizira kukula kwachuma ndi chitukuko, komanso kupititsa patsogolo thanzi ndi moyo. Amatsutsidwa chifukwa cha izi, chifukwa, malinga ndi akatswiri ambiri, sayansi siingathe kuchepetsedwa kukhala chidziwitso chochepa, chothandizira. Lingaliro la Big Bang kapena kupezeka kwa Higgs boson sikumawonjezera chuma chapakhomo, koma kumakulitsa kumvetsetsa kwathu dziko lapansi. Kodi si zimene sayansi ikunena?

Kafukufuku wakutsogolo wa Stanford ndi MIT economists

Fusion, i.e. tapereka moni kwa tsekwe

Komabe, nkovuta kutsutsa ziŵerengero zosavuta za manambala zoperekedwa ndi akatswiri azachuma. Ena ali ndi yankho lomwe chuma chingalingalirenso mozama. Malinga ndi kunena kwa ambiri, sayansi tsopano yathetsa mavuto opepuka ndipo ikupita patsogolo ku zovuta kwambiri, monga ngati mavuto a m’maganizo kapena kugwirizana kwa sayansi.

Pali mafunso ovuta apa.

Kodi ndi liti pamene tingaganize kuti zina mwa zipatso zimene tikuyesetsa kuchita sizingachitike?

Kapena, monga momwe katswiri wa zachuma anganene, kodi ndife ofunitsitsa kuwononga ndalama zochuluka motani pothetsa mavuto amene atsimikizira kukhala ovuta kwambiri kuwathetsa?

Kodi ndi liti pamene tiyenera kuyamba kuchepetsa zotayika ndikuyimitsa kafukufuku?

Chitsanzo cha kuyang'anizana ndi nkhani yovuta kwambiri yomwe poyamba inkawoneka yosavuta ndi mbiri ya milandu. kukula kwa fusion ya thermonuclear. Kutulukira kwa kuphatikizika kwa zida za nyukiliya m’zaka za m’ma 30 ndi kupangidwa kwa zida za nyukiliya m’zaka za m’ma 50 kunachititsa akatswiri a sayansi kuyembekezera kuti kusakanikirana kungagwiritsidwe ntchito mofulumira kupanga mphamvu. Komabe, zaka zoposa makumi asanu ndi awiri pambuyo pake, sitinapite patsogolo kwambiri panjirayi, ndipo ngakhale kuti malonjezo ambiri a mphamvu zamtendere ndi zolamulidwa kuchokera kuphatikizidwe muzitsulo za maso athu, izi sizili choncho.

Ngati sayansi ikukankhira kafukufuku mpaka kulibe njira ina yopititsira patsogolo kupitilira kwina kopanda ndalama zina zazikulu, ndiye kuti mwina ndi nthawi yoti muyime ndikulingalira ngati kuli koyenera. Zikuwoneka kuti akatswiri a sayansi ya zakuthambo omwe apanga kukhazikitsa kachiwiri kwamphamvu akuyandikira izi. Chachikulu cha Hadron Collider ndipo mpaka pano zochepa zabwera ... Palibe zotsatira zochirikiza kapena kutsutsa ziphunzitso zazikuluzikulu. Pali malingaliro oti chowonjezera chokulirapo chikufunika. Komabe, si aliyense amene amaganiza kuti iyi ndi njira yoyenera.

Golden Age of Innovation - Kumanga Bridge ya Brooklyn

Wabodza chododometsa

Komanso, monga tanenera mu ntchito yasayansi yofalitsidwa mu Meyi 2018 ndi Prof. David Woolpert kuchokera ku Santa Fe Institute mutha kutsimikizira kuti alipo zolepheretsa zazikulu za chidziwitso cha sayansi.

Umboni umenewu umayamba ndi kupangidwa mwamasamu kwa mmene “chida chotulutsira zinthu”—mwachitsanzo, wasayansi wokhala ndi kompyuta yapamwamba kwambiri, zida zazikulu zoyesera, ndi zina zotero—angapeze chidziŵitso cha sayansi ponena za mkhalidwe wa chilengedwe chomzinga. Pali mfundo yaikulu ya masamu imene imalepheretsa chidziŵitso cha sayansi chimene chingapezeke mwa kuona chilengedwe chanu, kuchisintha, kuneneratu zimene zidzachitike pambuyo pake, kapena kulingalira zimene zinachitika m’mbuyomo. Mwakutero, chipangizo chotulutsa ndi chidziwitso chomwe chimapeza, subsystems za chilengedwe chimodzi. Kulumikizana uku kumachepetsa magwiridwe antchito a chipangizocho. Wolpert amatsimikizira kuti nthawi zonse padzakhala chinachake chimene sanganeneretu, chomwe sangakumbukire komanso sangachizindikire.

"M'lingaliro lina, mwambowu ukhoza kuwonedwa ngati chowonjezera cha zomwe a Donald McKay amanena kuti zoneneratu za m'tsogolo sizingafotokoze zotsatira za kuphunzira kwa wofotokozera za ulosiwu," Woolpert akufotokoza pa phys.org.

Bwanji ngati sitifuna chipangizo linanena bungwe kudziwa zonse za chilengedwe chake, koma m'malo amafuna kuti adziwe zambiri mmene tingadziwire zimene zingadziwike? Masamu a Volpert akuwonetsa kuti zida ziwiri zongoyerekeza zomwe zili ndi ufulu wakudzisankhira (zodziwika bwino) komanso chidziwitso chokwanira cha chilengedwe chonse sizingakhale pamodzi m'chilengedwechi. Pakhoza kukhala kapena palibe "zida zolozera kwambiri", koma zosaposa imodzi. Wolpert mwa nthabwala amatcha chotsatira ichi kuti ndi "mfundo yokhulupirira Mulungu mmodzi" chifukwa ngakhale sichiletsa kukhalapo kwa mulungu m'chilengedwe chathu, chimaletsa kukhalapo kwa milungu yambiri.

Wolpert akufananiza mkangano wake ndi choko anthu chododometsam’mene Epimenides wa ku Knossos, wa ku Kerete, akunena mawu otchuka akuti: “Akrete onse ndi abodza; Komabe, mosiyana ndi mawu a Epimenides, omwe amawulula vuto la machitidwe omwe amatha kudziwonetsa okha, malingaliro a Volpert amagwiranso ntchito ku zida zongoyerekeza zomwe zilibe lusoli.

Kafukufuku wa Volpert ndi gulu lake amachitidwa mbali zosiyanasiyana, kuchokera kumalingaliro amalingaliro mpaka chiphunzitso cha makina a Turing. Asayansi a Santa Fe akuyesera kuti apange mawonekedwe osiyanasiyana otheka omwe angawalole kuphunzira osati malire a chidziwitso cholondola, komanso zomwe zimachitika ngati zida zongoyerekeza siziyenera kugwira ntchito molondola XNUMX%.

David Wolpert wa Santa Fe Institute

Sizili ngati zaka zana zapitazo

Malingaliro a Volpert, kutengera kusanthula kwa masamu ndi zomveka, amatiuza kenakake kazachuma mu sayansi. Iwo amati ntchito zakutali kwambiri za sayansi yamakono - mavuto a cosmological, mafunso okhudza chiyambi ndi chikhalidwe cha chilengedwe - sayenera kukhala malo a ndalama zazikulu zachuma. Ndizokayikitsa kuti mayankho okhutiritsa angapezeke. Chabwino, tidzaphunzira zinthu zatsopano, zomwe zidzangowonjezera chiwerengero cha mafunso, potero kuwonjezera gawo la umbuli. Chodabwitsa ichi ndi chodziwika bwino kwa akatswiri a sayansi ya zakuthambo.

Komabe, monga momwe deta yomwe yasonyezedwera poyamba ikuwonetseratu, kuyang'ana kwa sayansi yogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi zotsatira za chidziwitso chopezedwa chikuchepa kwambiri. Zili ngati mafuta akutha, kapena injini ya sayansi yatha chifukwa cha ukalamba, zomwe zaka mazana awiri kapena zana zapitazo zidalimbikitsa chitukuko cha teknoloji, kupanga, kulingalira, kupanga, ndipo potsiriza, chuma, kumabweretsa kuwonjezeka kwa moyo wabwino ndi moyo wa anthu.

Mfundo yake si kupotoza manja anu ndi kung’amba zovala zanu. Komabe, m'pofunika kuganizira ngati ndi nthawi yokweza kwambiri kapena m'malo mwa injini iyi.