Kodi sipadzakhala ntchito kwa mwamuna? Nthawi ya Robo Faber

Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Daren Acemoglu wa Massachusetts Institute of Technology ndi Pascual Restrepo wa pa yunivesite ya Boston, lofalitsidwa mu April chaka chino, loboti iliyonse m’makampani amawononga ntchito zitatu kapena zisanu ndi chimodzi mmenemo. Iwo omwe anali pansi pa chinyengo kuti mwina ndi automation iyi kutenga ntchito ndikokokomeza, amataya malingaliro awo.

Ofufuzawa adaphunzira momwe makina opanga mafakitale adakhudzira msika wantchito waku US mu 1990-2007. Iwo adatsimikiza kuti loboti iliyonse yowonjezera idachepetsa ntchito mderali ndi 0,25-0,5% ndikuchepetsa malipiro ndi XNUMX-XNUMX%.

Nthawi yomweyo Maphunziro a Daren InuGlu ndi Pascual Restrepo perekani umboni wakuti robotization ndiyothandiza komanso yotsika mtengo. Malinga ndi bungwe la International Federation of Robotic, maloboti 1,5 miliyoni mpaka 1,75 miliyoni akugwiritsidwa ntchito masiku ano, ndipo akatswiri ena akukhulupirira kuti chiŵerengerochi chidzawonjezeka kaŵiri kapenanso kuwonjezereka pofika chaka cha 2025.

Kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2017, The Economist inanena kuti pofika chaka cha 2034, 47% ya ntchito zidzakhala zokha. “Palibe boma lililonse padziko lapansi limene lingakwanitse kuchita zimenezi,” akuchenjeza motero atolankhani, akumaneneratu za tsunami yochititsa kusintha kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu.

Momwemonso, kampani yolangizira ya PricewaterhouseCooper, yomwe ikuwonetseratu msika wa Britain, ikukamba za chiyembekezo chotaya 30% ya ntchito m'zaka khumi ndi zisanu zikubwerazi, ndi 80% mu maudindo oyang'anira. Tsamba lopereka Job Gumtree likunena mu kafukufuku wake kuti pafupifupi theka la ntchito (40%) pamsika wamasiku ano asinthidwa ndi makina pazaka XNUMX zikubwerazi.

Ntchito zamaganizo zimatha

Dr Carl Frey wa ku yunivesite ya Oxford, mu pepala lodziwika bwino zaka zingapo zapitazo ponena za tsogolo la ntchito, ananeneratu kuti 47% ya ntchito idzayang'anizana ndi chiopsezo chachikulu chosowa chifukwa cha ntchito yodzipangira ntchito. Wasayansiyo anadzudzulidwa chifukwa chokokomeza, koma sanasinthe maganizo ake. Pakalipano, kuchuluka kwa deta ndi kafukufuku zikuwoneka kuti zikutsimikizira osati kuti iye ndi wolondola, koma akhoza ngakhale kuchepetsa zotsatira za kusintha kwa roboti pa ntchito.

Bukuli laphwanya mbiri yapadziko lonse posachedwa. "Second Machine Age" wolemba Erik Brynjolfsson ndi Andrew McAfi'goomwe amalemba za kuchuluka kwa chiwopsezo cha ntchito zopanda luso. “Tekinoloje nthawi zonse imawononga ntchito, koma idayambitsanso ntchito. Izi zakhala zikuchitika kwa zaka mazana awiri zapitazi, "adatero Brynjolfsson poyankhulana posachedwapa. “Komabe, kuyambira m’ma 90, chiŵerengero cha anthu olembedwa ntchito ku chiŵerengero cha anthu chakhala chikutsika mofulumira. Mabungwe aboma akuyenera kuganizira izi akamayendetsa mfundo zachuma.

McAfee adauza Wired mu February chaka chino kuti sizowona kwambiri masomphenya a makinawo, kuwuka kwa Skynet ndi Terminator komwe kumamudetsa nkhawa, koma masomphenya a kukwera kwa anthu omwe akutaya ntchito pamlingo wowopsa. kudzera mu robotics ndi automation. Katswiri wazachuma amakopa chidwi osati ku ntchito zakuthupi, koma ku msika wantchito womwe ukukula kuyambira 80s. vuto la kuchepetsa chiŵerengero cha ogwira ntchito m’zipinda zoyera amene, makamaka m’mikhalidwe ya Amereka, amapanga gulu lapakati. Ndipo ngati pali ntchito yoteroyo, ndiye kuti malipiro ake ndi otsika kwambiri, kapena malipiro ake ndi apamwamba kwambiri kuposa pafupifupi.

Tikayang'ana pa matekinoloje omwe akupangidwa panopa, mndandanda wa ntchito zomwe ziyenera kuthetsedwa ukhoza kukhala wautali modabwitsa. Chifukwa chiyani timayembekezera, mwachitsanzo, kuti chiwopsezocho chidzakhudza? Othandizira makamera a TV? Panthawiyi, kampani ya ku Germany ya KUKA ikuyesa kale ma robot omwe sangalowe m'malo mwa ogwira ntchito, komanso amalemba "zabwino komanso zokhazikika". Magalimoto okhala ndi makamera akugwiritsidwa ntchito kale pawailesi yakanema m'malo ena.

Kwa ntchito monga dokotala wa mano, wosewera, mphunzitsi, ozimitsa moto kapena wansembe, zidzakhala zovuta kupeza loboti. Osachepera ndi momwe zikuwonekera mpaka pano. Komabe, m'tsogolomu izi sizimachotsedwa kwathunthu, popeza makina kapena machitidwe adapangidwa kale kuti akwaniritse ntchito zawo. Iwo amati m’mafakitale opangira magalimoto, maloboti sangalowe m’malo mwa anthu amene ali paudindo winawake. Panthawiyi, opanga ma robot, monga kampani ya ku Japan Yaskawa, yomwe nthawi ina inapanga makina opangira nyumba kuchokera ku njerwa za Lego, ali ndi maganizo osiyana pa nkhaniyi. Monga momwe zinakhalira, mutha kusinthanso malo mayendedwe oyang'anira.

Roboti yophunzitsa yaku South Korea Engkey

Mwachitsanzo, ogwira ntchito pa Deep Knowledge ali ndi loboti yokhala ndi luntha lochita kupanga ngati m'modzi mwa mabwana awo. Membala wa Supervisory Board chifukwa pali Vital (od) ina - kapena m'malo mwake, mapulogalamu okonzekera kusanthula zochitika zamalonda kutengera zomwe zaperekedwa. Mosiyana ndi anthu, luntha lochita kupanga silikhala ndi malingaliro komanso chidziwitso ndipo zimadalira zomwe zaperekedwa, kuwerengera kuthekera kwa zochitika zina (ndi zotsatira zabizinesi).

Opeza ndalama? Kuyambira zaka za m'ma 80, ntchito za ogulitsa katundu ndi ogulitsa zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi zovuta zowonongeka zomwe zimakhala zogwira mtima kwambiri kuposa anthu pakugwira kusiyana kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali ndikupanga ndalama.

Maloya? Kulekeranji? Kampani yazamalamulo ya ku United States ya BakerHostetler inali yoyamba padziko lapansi kulemba ganyu loya wa maloboti oyendetsedwa ndi AI chaka chatha. Makina otchedwa Ross, opangidwa ndi IBM, amagwira ntchito pakusokonekera kwamakampani maola 24 patsiku - anali ndi maloya pafupifupi makumi asanu ogwira ntchito.

aphunzitsi? Ku South Korea, kumene aphunzitsi a Chingelezi ndi ovuta kupeza, maloboti oyambirira ophunzitsa akuphunzitsa chinenero cha Shakespeare. Pulogalamu yoyeserera ya ntchitoyi idayambitsidwa m'masukulu apulaimale. Mu 2013, makina ophunzirira zilankhulo zakunja a Engkey adapezeka m'masukulu komanso m'masukulu a kindergartens, olamulidwa ndi aphunzitsi achingerezi ochokera kumayiko ena.

Mafakitale Owonjezera ndi Kusowa Ntchito M'maiko Achitatu Padziko Lonse

Malinga ndi International Federation of Robotic (IFR), idagulitsidwa padziko lonse lapansi mu 2013. 179 maloboti mafakitale.

Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti kusintha kwa mafakitale opanga makina, kuphatikizapo chitukuko cha 3D kusindikiza ndi zowonjezera zamakono (zokhudzana ndi kusindikiza kwa 3D ndi zotumphukira zake), kungayambitse kutaya ntchito ngakhale m'mayiko otchedwa. dziko lachitatu ndi ntchito zotsika mtengo. Ndiko komwe kwa zaka zambiri amasoka, mwachitsanzo, nsapato zamasewera zamakampani odziwika bwino padziko lonse lapansi. Tsopano, mwachitsanzo, nsapato za Nike Flyknit zimapangidwira zokha, kuchokera ku zigawo zosindikizidwa za 3D, zomwe zimasokedwa ndi ulusi wamitundu yambiri muzovala za robotic, zomwe zimakumbutsa ma workshop akale oluka - koma opanda anthu. Ndi makina oterowo, kuyandikira kwa mbewuyo kwa wogula kumayamba kuganiziridwa kuti kuchepetsa ndalama zotumizira. N'zosadabwitsa kuti German Adidas amapanga zitsanzo zake za Primeknit pogwiritsa ntchito teknoloji yomweyi monga nsapato za Nike zomwe tatchulazi kudziko lakwawo, osati kwinakwake ku Central Asia. Kungogwira ntchito kuchokera kumafakitale aku Asia sikukupatsani ntchito zambiri ku Germany. Fakitale yamaloboti safuna antchito ambiri.

Kusintha kwa kapangidwe ka ntchito za anthu ndi maloboti mu 2009-2013.

Katswiri wofufuza za Boston Consulting Group adalengeza mu 2012 kuti, chifukwa cha makina, luso la robotic, ndi kupita patsogolo kwa kupanga zowonjezera, ndi 30 2020% ya katundu wa US kuchokera ku China akhoza kupangidwa ku US. Ndi chizindikiro cha nthawi yomwe kampani yaku Japan ya Mori Seiki imatsegula fakitale ya zida zamagalimoto ndikusonkhanitsa ku California. Komabe, pali, ndithudi, palibe antchito. Makina amapanga makina, ndipo mwachiwonekere simukufunikira ngakhale kuyatsa magetsi pafakitale iyi.

Mwina si kutha kwa ntchito konse, koma zikuwoneka ngati kutha kwa ntchito kwa anthu ambiri. Maulosi ochuluka ngati amenewa mwina ndi omveka bwino. Akatswiri akuyamba kulankhula ndi mawu amodzi - gawo lalikulu la msika wa ntchito lidzasowa m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi. Mbali ina ya maulosi amenewa ndi zotsatira za chikhalidwe cha anthu. Ndizovuta kwambiri kuzilingalira. Anthu ambiri amaganizabe kuti kuphunzira zamalamulo kapena kubanki ndi tikiti yabwino yopezera ntchito yabwino komanso moyo wabwino. Palibe amene amawauza kuti aganizirenso.

Kupanga nsapato za Nike Flyknit

Kuwona kopanda chiyembekezo kwa msika wantchito, komwe kumasinthidwa pang'onopang'ono ndi maloboti, makamaka m'maiko otukuka, sikukutanthauza kutsika kwa moyo ndi kusowa. Zikakhala zocheperapo - kuzisintha, ayenera kulipira misonkho. Mwina osati loboti, koma kampani yomwe imagwiritsa ntchito. Anthu ambiri amaganiza motere, mwachitsanzo, Bill Gates, yemwe anayambitsa Microsoft.

Izi zikanapangitsa kuti onse omwe adachotsedwa ntchito ndi makina azikhala pamlingo wabwino - i.e. kugula zomwe maloboti omwe amawagwirira ntchito amapanga.