Kukhazikika kwathu pang'ono

Dzuwa limatuluka nthawi zonse kummawa, nyengo zimasintha pafupipafupi, pali masiku 365 kapena 366 pachaka, nyengo yozizira imakhala yozizira, nyengo yotentha imakhala yofunda… Wotopetsa. Koma tiyeni tisangalale ndi kutopa kumeneku! Choyamba, sichidzakhalapo mpaka kalekale. Kachiwiri, kukhazikika kwathu pang'ono ndi nkhani yapadera komanso yakanthawi mu dongosolo la solar lachisokonezo chonse.

Kuyenda kwa mapulaneti, mwezi ndi zinthu zina zonse m’dongosolo la dzuŵa zikuoneka kuti n’zadongosolo komanso lodziŵika bwino. Koma ngati ndi choncho, mumafotokoza bwanji ma crater onse omwe timawawona pa Mwezi ndi zinthu zambiri zakuthambo zomwe zili m'dongosolo lathu? Palinso zambiri Padziko Lapansi, koma popeza tili ndi mlengalenga, komanso kukokoloka, zomera ndi madzi, sitiwona chitsamba cha dziko lapansi momveka bwino monga m'malo ena.

Ngati dongosolo la dzuŵa limakhala ndi mfundo zakuthupi zomwe zimagwira ntchito motsatira mfundo za Newtonian, ndiye, podziwa malo enieni ndi maulendo a Dzuwa ndi mapulaneti onse, tikhoza kudziwa malo awo nthawi iliyonse mtsogolomu. Tsoka ilo, zenizeni zimasiyana ndi machitidwe abwino a Newton.

mlengalenga butterfly

Kupita patsogolo kwakukulu kwa sayansi ya chilengedwe kunayamba ndendende ndi kuyesa kufotokoza zakuthambo. Zomwe zapezedwa motsimikiza zofotokozera malamulo oyendetsera mapulaneti zidapangidwa ndi "makolo oyambitsa" a zakuthambo zamakono, masamu ndi physics - Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler i Newton. Komabe, ngakhale kuti makina a zinthu ziwiri zakuthambo zomwe zimagwirizanitsa pansi pa mphamvu yokoka zimadziwika bwino, kuwonjezera kwa chinthu chachitatu (chotchedwa vuto la matupi atatu) kumapangitsa kuti vutoli likhale lovuta kwambiri moti sitingathe kulithetsa mopenda.

Kodi titha kulosera zakuyenda kwa Dziko Lapansi, titi, zaka biliyoni zikubwerazi? Kapena, mwa kuyankhula kwina: kodi dongosolo la dzuwa ndi lokhazikika? Asayansi ayesa kuyankha funso limeneli kwa mibadwomibadwo. Zotsatira zoyamba zomwe adapeza Peter Simoni wochokera Laplace i Joseph Louis Lagrange, mosakayikira anapereka yankho lolimbikitsa.

Kumapeto kwa zaka za zana la XNUMX, kuthetsa vuto la kukhazikika kwa kayendedwe ka dzuwa kunali imodzi mwazovuta zazikulu zasayansi. mfumu ya Sweden Oscar II, mpaka anakhazikitsa mphoto yapadera kwa munthu amene amathetsa vutoli. Anapezedwa mu 1887 ndi katswiri wa masamu wa ku France Henri Poincaré. Komabe, umboni wake wosonyeza kuti njira zosokoneza sizingatsogolere kuwongolera koyenera sizimaganiziridwa kuti ndizotsimikizika.

Anapanga maziko a chiphunzitso cha masamu cha kukhazikika kwa kuyenda. Alexander M. Lapunovamene ankadabwa kuti mtunda wapakati pa njira ziwiri zapafupi mu dongosolo lachisokonezo umawonjezeka mofulumira bwanji. Pamene mu theka lachiwiri la zaka makumi awiri. Edward Lorenz, katswiri wa zanyengo ku Massachusetts Institute of Technology, anamanga chitsanzo chosavuta cha kusintha kwa nyengo komwe kumadalira zinthu khumi ndi ziwiri zokha, sizinali zogwirizana mwachindunji ndi kayendedwe ka matupi a dzuwa. Mu pepala lake la 1963, Edward Lorenz adawonetsa kuti kusintha kwakung'ono muzolowera kumayambitsa khalidwe losiyana kwambiri la dongosolo. Katunduyu, yemwe pambuyo pake adadziwika kuti "butterfly effect", adakhala ngati machitidwe amphamvu kwambiri omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito kutengera zochitika zosiyanasiyana mufizikiki, chemistry kapena biology.

Gwero la chisokonezo mu machitidwe osinthika ndi mphamvu za dongosolo lomwelo zomwe zimagwira ntchito motsatizana. Matupi ambiri m'dongosolo, m'pamenenso pali chisokonezo. Mu Dzuwa la Dzuwa, chifukwa cha kusagwirizana kwakukulu m'magulu a zigawo zonse poyerekeza ndi Dzuwa, kugwirizana kwa zigawozi ndi nyenyezi kumakhala kwakukulu, kotero kuti chiwerengero cha chisokonezo chofotokozedwa mu Lyapunov exponents sichiyenera kukhala chachikulu. Komanso, malinga ndi kuwerengera kwa Lorentz, sitiyenera kudabwa ndi lingaliro la chisokonezo cha dongosolo la dzuwa. Zingakhale zodabwitsa ngati dongosolo lokhala ndi chiwerengero chochuluka chaufulu chikanakhala chokhazikika.

Zaka khumi zapitazo Jacques Lascar kuchokera ku Paris Observatory, anapanga makompyuta oposa 40 oyerekezera mapulaneti. Mu lililonse la iwo, mikhalidwe yoyambirira inali yosiyana kwambiri. Kujambula kukuwonetsa kuti palibe chowopsa chomwe chingatichitikire zaka 1 miliyoni zikubwerazi, koma pambuyo pake mu 2-XNUMX% yamilandu zitha kuchitika. kusokoneza kwathunthu kwa dongosolo la dzuwa. Tilinso ndi zaka 40 miliyoni zomwe tili nazo pokhapokha ngati mlendo wina wosayembekezeka, chinthu kapena chinthu chatsopano chomwe sichikuganiziridwa pakadali pano sichikuwoneka.

Kuwerengera kumasonyeza, mwachitsanzo, kuti mkati mwa zaka 5 biliyoni njira ya Mercury (planeti loyamba kuchokera ku Dzuwa) idzasintha, makamaka chifukwa cha mphamvu ya Jupiter. Izi zitha kukhala Dziko lapansi likuwombana ndi Mars kapena Mercury ndendende. Tikalowa m'gulu limodzi la dataset, iliyonse ili ndi zaka 1,3 biliyoni. Mercury ikhoza kugwa mu Dzuwa. Mu kayeseleledwe ina, kunapezeka kuti pambuyo 820 miliyoni zaka Mars adzachotsedwa mu dongosolo, ndipo pambuyo pa zaka 40 miliyoni zidzafika kugunda kwa Mercury ndi Venus.

Kafukufuku wokhudza kusinthika kwa Dongosolo lathu ndi Lascar ndi gulu lake adayerekeza nthawi ya Lapunov (ie, nthawi yomwe njira yoperekedwa ikhoza kuneneratu molondola) kwa Dongosolo lonse pazaka 5 miliyoni.

Zikuoneka kuti cholakwika cha 1 km chokha pakuzindikira malo oyamba a dziko lapansi chikhoza kuwonjezeka mpaka 1 gawo la zakuthambo muzaka 95 miliyoni. Ngakhale tikanadziwa zoyambira za System ndi zolondola kwambiri, koma zolondola, sitingathe kulosera zomwe zimachitika nthawi iliyonse. Kuti tiwulule tsogolo la Dongosolo, lomwe ndi lachisokonezo, tiyenera kudziwa deta yoyambirira ndi kulondola kosatha, zomwe sizingatheke.

Komanso, sitikudziwa motsimikiza. mphamvu zonse za dongosolo la dzuwa. Koma ngakhale kuganizira zotsatira zonse, kuphatikizapo relativistic ndi miyeso yolondola kwambiri, sitingasinthe chikhalidwe chachisokonezo cha dongosolo la dzuwa ndipo sitingathe kulosera za khalidwe lake ndi dziko nthawi iliyonse.

Chilichonse chikhoza kuchitika

Kotero, mapulaneti a dzuwa ndi achisokonezo, ndizo zonse. Mawuwa akutanthauza kuti sitingathe kulosera momwe dziko lapansi lidzakhalire kupitirira, kunena, zaka 100 miliyoni. Kumbali inayi, dongosolo la dzuŵa mosakayikira limakhalabe lokhazikika ngati dongosolo panthawiyi, popeza kuti kupatuka kwakung'ono kwa magawo omwe amasonyeza njira za mapulaneti kumatsogolera kumayendedwe osiyanasiyana, koma ndi katundu wapafupi. Choncho n’zokayikitsa kuti idzagwa m’zaka mabiliyoni zikubwerazi.

Inde, pakhoza kukhala zinthu zatsopano zomwe zatchulidwa kale zomwe sizikuganiziridwa m'mawerengedwe apamwambawa. Mwachitsanzo, dongosololi limatenga zaka 250 miliyoni kuti limalize kuzungulira kwapakati pa mlalang’amba wa Milky Way. Kusunthaku kumakhala ndi zotsatira zake. Kusintha kwa malo kumasokoneza kusamalidwa bwino pakati pa Dzuwa ndi zinthu zina. Izi, ndithudi, sizinganenedweratu, koma zimachitika kuti kusalinganika koteroko kumabweretsa kuwonjezeka kwa zotsatira. ntchito ya comet. Zinthuzi zimawulukira kudzuwa pafupipafupi kuposa nthawi zonse. Izi zimawonjezera chiopsezo cha kugunda kwawo ndi Dziko lapansi.

Nyenyezi pambuyo pa zaka 4 miliyoni Zithunzi za 710 kudzakhala zaka 1,1 kuwala kuchokera ku Dzuwa, zomwe zingathe kusokoneza kanjira ka zinthu Mtambo wa Oort ndi kuwonjezera mwayi wa comet kugundana ndi limodzi la mapulaneti a mkati mwa dongosolo la dzuŵa.

Asayansi amadalira mbiri yakale ndipo, potengera ziwerengero kuchokera kwa iwo, amaneneratu kuti, mwina m'zaka theka la miliyoni. meteor kugunda pansi 1 km m'mimba mwake, zomwe zimayambitsa tsoka lachilengedwe. Momwemonso, potengera zaka 100 miliyoni, meteorite ikuyembekezeka kugwa kukula kwake kofanana ndi komwe kudapangitsa kuti Cretaceous kutha zaka 65 miliyoni zapitazo.

Mpaka zaka 500-600 miliyoni, muyenera kudikirira nthawi yayitali (kachiwiri, kutengera zomwe zilipo komanso ziwerengero) kung'anima kapena supernova hyperenergy kuphulika. Pamtunda wotero, kunyezimira kumatha kukhudza gawo la ozoni padziko lapansi ndikupangitsa kutha kwakukulu kofanana ndi kutha kwa Ordovician - ngati lingaliro la izi ndilolondola. Komabe, ma radiation otulutsidwa ayenera kulunjika ku Dziko Lapansi kuti athe kuwononga chilichonse pano.

Choncho tiyeni tisangalale ndi kubwerezabwereza ndi kukhazikika pang'ono kwa dziko lapansi lomwe tikuliwona ndi momwe tikukhalamo. Masamu, ziwerengero ndi kuthekera zimamupangitsa kukhala wotanganidwa m'kupita kwanthawi. Mwamwayi, ulendo wautaliwu ndi wakutali kwambiri.