Kuneneratu kwanthawi yayitali kwa msika wa ndege

Malo oyesera ndi kusonkhanitsa Airbus ku Toulouse-Blagnac Airport ku France. Zithunzi za Airbus

Opanga ndege zolumikizirana asindikiza zolosera zanthawi yayitali za msika wamaulendo apandege. Malinga ndi kuyerekezera kwawo, m'zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi, 2018-2037, zoyendera zidzawonjezeka ndi nthawi 2,5, ndipo ndege zidzagula: malinga ndi Boeing - 42,7 ndege zikwi ($ 6,35 trilioni), ndipo malinga ndi Airbus - 37,4 zikwi. , opanga ku Ulaya amachita za magalimoto okhala ndi mipando yopitilira 100, ndipo yaku America yokhala ndi ndege zing'onozing'ono. Embraer akuyerekeza kufunikira kwa ndege zachigawo zomwe zimakhala ndi mipando ya 150 pa 10,5 zikwi. mayunitsi, ndi MFR ya turboprops ndi 3,02 zikwi. Ofufuza Boeing amaneneratu kuti mu zaka makumi awiri chiwerengero cha ndege chidzawonjezeka kuchokera panopa 24,4 48,5. mpaka mayunitsi 8,8, ndipo kuchuluka kwa msika wamayendedwe apamlengalenga kudzakhala madola XNUMX thililiyoni.

Pakatikati pa chaka, opanga ndege zolumikizirana adafalitsa zolosera zanthawi yayitali za msika wamaulendo apamlengalenga. Kafukufuku wa Boeing amatchedwa Current Market Outlook - CMO (Current Market Outlook) ndi Airbus Global Market Forecast - GMF (World Market Forecast). Pakuwunika kwake, wopanga ndege waku Europe amayendetsa ndege zokhala ndi mipando yopitilira 100, pomwe wopanga waku America amayang'anira ndege zachigawo zomwe zimakhala ndi mipando 90. Kumbali inayi, zolosera zokonzedwa ndi Bombardier, Embraer ndi ATR zimayang'ana kwambiri ma jets am'madera, omwe ndi nkhani ya chidwi chawo chopanga.

M'manenedwe osiyana, ofufuza msika akuyerekeza: kuchuluka kwa kayendedwe ka ndege ndi chitukuko cha zombo ndi zigawo za dziko lapansi ndi momwe chuma chikuyendera pakugwira ntchito kwa msika woyendetsa ndege m'zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi 2018-2037. Kukonzekera kumasulidwa kwaposachedwa kunayambika ndi kusanthula mozama kwa magalimoto pamsewu wotanganidwa kwambiri ndi kusintha kwachulukidwe kwa zombo, zomwe zimakhala ndi zonyamulira zazikulu kwambiri, komanso ndalama zogwiritsira ntchito magawo a njira imodzi. msika woyendera ndege. Zoneneratu sizikugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi oyang'anira ndege ndi opanga ndege olankhulana okha, komanso ndi mabanki, akatswiri ofufuza zamakampani oyendetsa ndege komanso maulamuliro aboma okhudzidwa.

Zolosera zam'mlengalenga

Ofufuza za msika wa ndege, omwe adakonza zotulutsa zaposachedwa kwambiri, adachokera ku mfundo yakuti kukula kwachuma kwapachaka kwa GDP yapadziko lonse (gross domestic product) kudzakhala 2,8%. Mayiko m'dera: Asia-Pacific - 3,9%, Middle East - 3,5%, Africa - 3,3% ndi South America - 3,0% adzalemba apamwamba kwambiri pachaka kukula mphamvu za chuma chawo, ndipo pansi pafupifupi padziko lonse: Europe - 1,7, 2 %, North America - 2% ndi Russia ndi Central Asia - 4,7%. Kukula kwachuma kudzapereka chiwonjezeko chapakati pachaka cha anthu okwera pamlingo wa XNUMX%. Kukula kwa mayendedwe, kuposa zachuma, kudzakhala makamaka chifukwa cha: kumasulidwa kwa msika ndi kukulitsa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa maukonde olumikizirana, mitengo yotsika ya matikiti, komanso zotsatira zabwino za chitukuko cha malonda padziko lonse lapansi ndi zokopa alendo. Kwa nthawi yoyamba m'zaka zambiri, tikuwona kukula kwachuma m'madera onse padziko lapansi kumapangitsa kuti anthu aziyenda pandege padziko lonse lapansi. "Tikuwona kukula kwamphamvu osati m'misika yomwe ikubwera ku China ndi India, komanso m'misika yokhwima ku Europe ndi North America," adatero Boeing Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa Marketing Randy Tinseth pofotokoza zamtsogolo.

Dalaivala wamkulu pa chitukuko cha maulendo a pandege adzakhala kukula kwa chiwerengero cha anthu ndi kukula kwapang'onopang'ono kwa anthu apakati (ie anthu omwe amapeza madola 10 mpaka 100 patsiku, ndalamazi zimasinthidwa chifukwa cha mphamvu yogula ya ndalama zaumwini). Ofufuza a Airbus awerengera kuti mkati mwa zaka makumi awiri chiwerengero cha anthu padziko lapansi chidzawonjezeka ndi 16% (kuchokera ku 7,75 kufika ku 9,01 biliyoni), ndi gulu lapakati ndi 69% (kuchokera ku 2,98 mpaka 5,05 biliyoni). Kuwonjezeka kwakukulu, kuwirikiza kawiri kwa chiwerengero cha anthu apakati kudzalembedwa ku Asia (kuchokera ku 1,41 mpaka 2,81 biliyoni), ndi mphamvu zazikulu kwambiri ku Africa (kuchokera ku 220 mpaka 530 miliyoni). M'misika ikuluikulu ya ku Ulaya ndi North America, kukula kwake kwapakati sikudzasintha kwambiri ndipo kudzakhalabe pamtunda wa 450-480 miliyoni (Europe) ndi 260 miliyoni (North America), motero. Tiyenera kukumbukira kuti gulu lapakati pakali pano limapanga 38% ya anthu padziko lapansi, ndipo m'zaka makumi awiri gawo lake lidzawonjezeka kufika 56%. Zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale mayendedwe apandege ndikukula kwachuma komanso kukula kwachuma m'misika yomwe ikubwera yomwe ili ndi kuthekera kwakukulu (kuphatikiza: India, China, South America, Central Europe ndi Russia). Pokhala ndi anthu okwana 6,7 biliyoni m'maderawa, maulendo apandege adzakula pamlingo wa 5,7% pachaka, ndipo chiwerengero cha anthu omwe akufuna kuyenda pandege chidzawonjezeka katatu. M'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, msika waku China woyendetsa ndege udzakhala waukulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Kumbali ina, m'misika yotukuka (kuphatikiza North America, Western Europe, Japan, Singapore, South Korea ndi Australia) yokhala ndi anthu opitilira biliyoni, magalimoto adzakula pamlingo wa 3,1%. Kufunika kwamayendedwe apamlengalenga kudzatsogolera ku chitukuko cha ma eyapoti, kuphatikiza malo osinthira omwe ali pafupi ndi mizinda yayikulu (amapanga okwera opitilira 10 tsiku lililonse pamaulendo ataliatali). Mu 2037, magawo awiri mwa magawo atatu a anthu padziko lapansi adzakhala m'mizinda, ndipo chiwerengero cha mizinda ikuluikulu chidzawonjezeka kuchokera ku 64 mpaka 210 (mu 2027) ndi 328 (mu 2037).

Madera omwe akutukuka mwamphamvu adzakhala: South America, dera la Asia-Pacific ndi Middle East, lomwe lidzakula pamlingo wapachaka wa 5-5,5%, ndi Africa - 6%. M'misika ikuluikulu iwiri yaku Europe ndi North America, kukula kudzakhala kocheperako pa 3,1% ndi 3,8%, motsatana. Popeza kuti misika iyi idzakula pang'onopang'ono kusiyana ndi chiwerengero cha padziko lonse (4,7%), gawo lawo pazochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi lidzachepa pang'onopang'ono. Mu 1990, gawo lophatikizana la msika waku America ndi ku Europe linali 72%, mu 2010 - 55%, zaka khumi ndi zisanu zapitazo - 49%, zaka makumi awiri gawoli lidzatsika mpaka 37%. Komabe, izi si chifukwa cha machulukitsidwe apamwamba kokha stagnation.

Kusintha kwapachaka kwa kayendetsedwe ka ndege pamaperesenti ochepa kupangitsa kuti m'zaka 20 kuchuluka kwa okwera kudzakwera kuchokera pa 4,1 mpaka 10 biliyoni, ndi zokolola zamayendedwe kuchokera pa 7,6 thililiyoni pkm (pass.-km) mpaka pafupifupi 19 thililiyoni. pkm. . Boeing akuyerekeza kuti mu 2037 madera omwe ali ndi magalimoto ambiri adzakhala njira zapakhomo ku China (2,4 trillion pkm), North America (2,0 trillion pkm), Europe ndi Southeast Asia, komanso kugwirizana kuchokera ku Ulaya kupita ku North America ( 0,9 trillion pkm). . ) ndi Middle East. Gawo la msika waku Asia padziko lapansi pano ndi 33%, ndipo m'zaka makumi awiri lidzafika 40%. Kumbali ina, msika waku Europe udzagwa kuchokera ku 25% mpaka 21%, ndipo msika waku North America kuchokera ku 21% mpaka 16%. Msika wa South America udzakhala wosasinthika ndi gawo la 5%, Russia ndi Central Asia - 4% ndi Africa - 3%.